The moment we’ve all been waiting for is finally here: fantasy football is back! The offseason may not have gone by without a lot of drama, but we’re about to see all of it come to fruition on Thursday night when the Bills take on the Rams.
Surely, after eight years you all know how this works. Here are my takes on the upcoming games and my picks!
Chad vs Kelvin
Current ESPN Proj (as of 9/7/22): 54% Chad
This is the marquee matchup that everyone has been waiting for! Wait, what are you saying to me? You’re saying no one cares? Oh well. Chad looks to start a rebound season and Kelvin looks to just stay above water. Fun!
ESPN currently favors Chad, and for good reason. The first half of his lineup is monstrous: QB Josh Allen, RBs Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon, and WRs Davante Adams, Michael Pittman, and Diontae Johnson. All of these players range from very solid to elite top of their position. Granted, Josh Allen and Joe Mixon may find themselves against tougher defenses this week, I could see this group of players dropping around 120-140 points. That’s without mentioning solid lower end starters like Dalton Schultz and David Montgomery (Oh, did I name his entire starting roster there? Sorry, it’s probably nepotism.)
Kelvin has a good slate of players too, although as I mentioned in the power rankings, they could be extremely volatile. We should get a pretty clear idea of whether Saquon’s explosiveness is back vs the Titans and we will see on Monday night whether Jerry Jeudy is going to be the hero or the sidekick in the Broncos receiving corps when they take on the Seahawks.
I think at this point in the season (literally before the season has begun), it’s important to remember that Kelvin started off the 2021 season HOT. This roster of his looks just as good as last year’s, so I’m trying not to completely discount him in this game, but I think Chad’s team is going to be just a little too good for Kelvin to take down.
The Pick: It’s Chad, but in a closer than expected game.
David vs Tyler
Current ESPN Proj (as of 9/7/22): 52% Tyler
In what should be an interesting game, 2020 and 2021 runner-up David will take on Tyler in Week 1. David’s draft was met with a lot of scrutiny and shock, so I know quite a few eyes will be on this game to see how some of the picks pan out.
Starting with David’s team, there are a lot of matchups that I don’t particularly like off the bat. Najee Harris against the Bengals is one that makes me feel some type of way. On one hand, with a retooled offense with a new QB, the Steelers could rely on Najee to set the tone for the offense and take the ball out of QB Mitch Trubisky’s hands more often. On the other hand, they may give Trubisky the keys and see what he can do with receiving weapons Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens.
Likewise, there is something about Gabe Davis that is giving me the heebie-jeebies. I feel like his ADP was predicated on his one massive game in the playoffs. Facing off against one of the best defenses in the league in the Rams on opening week gives me some pause for Mr. Davis. But, just like Najee, I can see scenarios in which Davis is a good start. I don’t have a solid statistical foundation for this, but rather a gut feeling.
On the positives, I love QB Herbert this week against the Raiders. The Chargers and Raiders always have the weirdest games, so I can absolutely see a Week 1 shootout in the cards on Sunday. And who else deserves to score a million fantasy points if not Justin Herbert? I mean, c’mon.
On Tyler’s side, a lot should be learned after this week. What roles are RBs Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams going to take for their teams? How strong will the Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown connection be? Will George Kittle and Chris Godwin stay healthy? Some of these questions will be answered by next Tuesday while others may take the whole season to develop.
For this week’s game, I like Tom Brady’s matchup against the Cowboys. Last year, Brady put forth a great fantasy performance against Dallas in Week 1 and I expect the same this year. And if I expect a great game out of QB Justin Herbert against the Raiders, I have to assume that means good fortune as well for Chargers RB Austin Ekeler.
The Pick: I’m taking Tyler in a game where the scoreboard doesn’t reflect how close the game was.
Ryan vs Conner
Current ESPN Proj (as of 9/7/22): 55% Ryan
For many different reasons, I think Ryan will have a lot of supporters in his Week 1 outing. Despite this, I truly think that this game could be a tight one.
Ryan’s team, despite being led by the Titans bruising RB Derrick Henry and the often elite Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, has a few question marks and interesting situations that need to settle out before I fully invest into his team. Mainly, the starting of Antonio Gibson (which under current circumstances, I totally get and agree with) and Miles Sanders (eh, not as much). I truly question whether Gibson, who has a known fumbling problem and was all set to ride pine before RB Brian Robinson got shot, is going to be a big part of the Commanders offensive gameplan. Sure, the Commies are starting Carson Wentz at QB (lol) and that surely limits what they can do through the air but I wonder what sort of faith the Commanders coaching staff has left in Gibson considering he is only playing out of extenuating circumstances.
Miles Sanders’ deal is much simpler. The dude is just in a RBBC with a bunch of mediocre RBs. Sure, he scored 0 TDs last year and he should be heading back to the mean in that department. However, the toiling I saw both Tyler and Chad go through as a Miles Sanders owner has permanently dissuaded me on him as a fantasy player. I simply do not like Miles Sanders. Maybe he pulls together a respectable performance to spite me, though.
I do, as mentioned before, love the matchup for Derrick Henry vs the Giants and Patrick Mahomes vs the Cardinals. The Giants are still the same old lovable basement dwellers we know and love, despite now having Brian Daboll as HC and the Cardinals, as we all know, do not deserve nice things.
On Conner’s side, Nick Chubb should prove to be a challenge for the Panthers defense. Derek Carr and Darren Waller will also be participating in the LAC-LV shootout I’ve been predicting in other areas of this article.
J.K. Dobbins coming back off an ACL tear and Allen Robinson coming off both a painful season give me some pause. Dobbins at least has an easy first test as he takes on the Flacco-led Jets.
The Pick: Ryan, for obvious reasons, but this could be a game of inches.
Andrew vs Brent
Current ESPN Proj (as of 9/7/22): 54% Andrew
Andrew is going to be hard to beat this year. Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce all on the same team is borderline unfair. These guys will most likely be matchup proof for the most part.
Players on Andrew’s team that worry me include Cam Akers, James Conner, and Terry McLaurin. I think I’d feel more confident about Akers if he put up a solid performance on Thursday. I’d also need to see James Conner put up a solid statline without a touchdown. For Terry, my main concern comes from his QB being Carson Wentz (lol).
On my side of the field, as I stated in the Power Rankings, it’s mainly high upside guys. There will be a lot to be proven. Will De’Andre Swift take the next step? Is Courtland Sutton the guy in Denver? Will Kyle Pitts still demand an insane target share? Much like Kelvin, my best case scenario is a great season with a lot of players taking a step forward. My worst case is a headache team unlike any other. Please God, be good to me for once.
The Pick: Andrew in a blow out.
